Operational Modeling with Health Economics to Support Decision Making for COPD Patients

© Health Research and Educational Trust. This is the accepted manuscript version of an article which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13652Objective: To assess the impact of interventions for improving the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), specifically increased use of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) on patient outcomes and cost-benefit analysis. Data sources: We used the national Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) datasets in England, local data and experts from the hospital setting, National Prices and National Tariffs, reports and the literature around the effectiveness of PR programmes. Study Design: The COPD pathway was modelled using discrete event simulation (DES) to capture the patient pathway to an adequate level of detail as well as randomness in the real world. DES was further enhanced by the integration of a health economic model to calculate the net benefit and cost of treating COPD patients based on key sets of interventions. Data Collection/Extraction methods: A total of 150 input parameters and 75 distributions were established to power the model using the HES dataset, outpatient activity data from the hospital and community services, and the literature. Principal Findings: The simulation model showed that increasing referral to PR (by 10%, 20%, or 30%) would be cost-effective (with a benefit-cost ratio of 5.81, 5.95, 5.91, respectively) by having a positive impact on patient outcomes and operational metrics. Number of deaths, admissions and bed days decreased (i.e. by 3.56 patients, 4.90 admissions, 137.31 bed days for a 30% increase in PR referrals) as well as quality of life increased (i.e. by 5.53 QALY among 1540 patients for the 30% increase). Conclusions: No operational model, either statistical or simulation, has previously been developed to capture the COPD patient pathway within a hospital setting. To date, no model has investigated the impact of PR on COPD services, such as operations, key performance, patient outcomes and cost-benefit analysis. The study will support policies around extending availability of PR as a major intervention.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Post-COVID-19 assessment in a specialist clinical service: a 12-month, single-centre, prospective study in 1325 individuals

Introduction: Post-COVID-19 complications require simultaneous characterisation and management to plan policy and health system responses. We describe the 12-month experience of the first UK dedicated post-COVID-19 clinical service to include hospitalised and non-hospitalised patients. Methods: In a single-centre, observational analysis, we report the demographics, symptoms, comorbidities, investigations, treatments, functional recovery, specialist referral and rehabilitation of 1325 individuals assessed at the University College London Hospitals post-COVID-19 service between April 2020 and April 2021, comparing by referral route: posthospitalised (PH), non-hospitalised (NH) and post emergency department (PED). Symptoms associated with poor recovery or inability to return to work full time were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. Results: 1325 individuals were assessed (PH: 547, 41.3%; PED: 212, 16%; NH: 566, 42.7%). Compared with the PH and PED groups, the NH group were younger (median 44.6 (35.6–52.8) years vs 58.3 (47.0–67.7) years and 48.5 (39.4–55.7) years), more likely to be female (68.2%, 43.0% and 59.9%), less likely to be of ethnic minority (30.9%, 52.7% and 41.0%) or seen later after symptom onset (median (IQR): 194 (118–298) days, 69 (51–111) days and 76 (55–128) days; all p<0.0001). All groups had similar rates of onward specialist referral (NH 18.7%, PH 16.1% and PED 18.9%, p=0.452) and were more likely to require support for breathlessness (23.7%, 5.5% and 15.1%, p<0.001) and fatigue (17.8%, 4.8% and 8.0%, p<0.001). Hospitalised patients had higher rates of pulmonary emboli, persistent lung interstitial abnormalities and other organ impairment. 716 (54.0%) individuals reported <75% optimal health (median 70%, IQR 55%–85%). Less than half of employed individuals could return to work full time at first assessment. Conclusion: Post-COVID-19 symptoms were significant in PH and NH patients, with significant ongoing healthcare needs and utilisation. Trials of interventions and patient-centred pathways for diagnostic and treatment approaches are urgently required